Recent projections by election predictor ElectoralCalculus suggest Northampton South MP Andrew Lewer could lose his seat to Labor if the current poll holds until the next election.
According to the site, each seat prediction is not only based on national polls, but also uses more advanced statistical analysis techniques to estimate how groups (like men or women and age groups) are likely to vote.
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Like all survey data, it must be viewed in context and with the expectation that it is subject to change
These estimates are then applied to each seat individually, using each seat’s demographic composition.
In response to the numbers, Mr Lewer suggested the poll was very short-term and gave no indication of the longer-term health of his seat or the Conservative Party as a whole. However, he said the controversy over the No10 parties had hurt Tory approval ratings.
The MP said: “I don’t normally pay much attention to polls. Harold Wilson famously said that a week is a long time in politics and we are probably two years away from a general election.
“I would therefore distinguish political polls and voting speculation from the current situation: the seriousness and damage they cause is very real.
“Many of the emails I’ve received about the No. 10 parties relate to times when people were experiencing defining moments in their lives, like visiting loved ones, sometimes the terminally ill, and attending Funerals and weddings have been terrifyingly curtailed, disrupted or prevented.
“This is therefore in no way a small or ‘Westminster bubble’ matter.”
Opposition councils also took a close look at the result. However, they said some voters are turning away from the Conservative Party not just because of the short-term drama Downing Street entails.
Councilor Emma Roberts, deputy leader of West Northamptonshire’s Labor Group, said: “We need to take opinion polls with a pinch of salt, especially when they show fluctuations around 30 points.
“The constituents I spoke to who voted for or voted for the Tory in 2019 are rightly very upset about what is going on with the Conservative Party and our MPs at the moment.
“I think it’s not just the parties that are massively preoccupying people at the moment, but also the dishonesty and lying that comes with it.
“As a country we all isolated ourselves, missing important moments with loved ones and depriving ourselves of the things we realistically value most in our daily lives to protect each other. Meanwhile, the prime minister broke the very rules he had made.
“The effect this is having is corrosive to our political system and is not supported by our absent Northampton MPs.”
Martin Baxter, founder and CEO of ElectoralCalculus, claimed that his website produced the most accurate prediction of all for the 2019 general election, taking the Tory majority to 361 when they landed just four seats more at 365.
He said: “Northampton South is interesting because it’s a good example of a classic seat. In 2019, the Conservatives’ lead over Labor was 11 per cent, very similar to the Conservatives’ national lead over Labour.
“It also has fairly average demographics, making it very representative of the country as a whole.
“In recent polls, Labor now has a (at least) 6 percent lead over the Conservatives. This is reflected in our forecast, which currently predicts a strong Labor advantage over the Conservatives in the seat, even larger than the national swing.
“Northampton South will be an important place to watch as it is so representative.”
Time will tell if this shift will be more impactful or just a short-term blip on the political radar.